Modeling susceptibility to deforestation of remaining ecosystems in North Central Mexico with logistic regression

Determining underlying factors that foster deforestation and delineating forest areas by levels of susceptibility are of the main challenges when defining policies for forest management and planning at regional scale. The susceptibility to deforestation of remaining forest ecosystems (shrubland, tem...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forestry research 2012, Vol.23 (3), p.345-354
Main Author: L. Miranda-Aragon E.J. Trevino-Garza J. Jimenez-Perez O.A. Aguirre-Calderon M.A. Gonzalez-Tagle M. Pompa-Garcia C.A. Aguirre-Salado
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
carbon
deforestation
ecosystem services
forest ecosystems
forest policy
Forestry
global warming
Life Sciences
Logistic回归
Original Paper
planning
rain forests
rainfed farming
regression analysis
roads
shrublands
sustainable forestry
timber production
towns
trees
回归建模
墨西哥
易感性
森林生态系统
森林砍伐
热带雨林
空间分析技术
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Summary:Determining underlying factors that foster deforestation and delineating forest areas by levels of susceptibility are of the main challenges when defining policies for forest management and planning at regional scale. The susceptibility to deforestation of remaining forest ecosystems (shrubland, temperate forest and rainforest) was conducted in the state of San Luis Potosi, located in north central Mexico. Spatial analysis techniques were used to detect the deforested areas in the study area during 1993–2007. Logistic regression was used to relate explanatory variables (such as social, investment, forest production, biophysical and proximity factors) with susceptibility to deforestation to construct predictive models with two focuses: general and by biogeographical zone. In all models, deforestation has positive correlation with distance to rainfed agriculture, and negative correlation with slope, distance to roads and distance to towns. Other variables were significant in some cases, but in others they had dual relationships, which varied in each biogeographical zone. The results show that the remaining rainforest of Huasteca region is highly susceptible to deforestation. Both approaches show that more than 70% of the current rainforest area has high and very high levels of susceptibility to deforestation. The values represent a serious concern with global warming whether tree carbon is released to atmosphere. However, after some considerations, encouraging forest environmental services appears to be the best alternative to achieve sustainable forest management.
ISSN:1007-662X
1993-0607
DOI:10.1007/s11676-012-0230-z