Remarkable Link between Projected Uncertainties of Arctic Sea-Ice Decline and Winter Eurasian Climate

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration （SIC） is strongly coupled with theEurasian circulation in the boreal winter （December-March; DJFM）, based on a singular value decomposition （SVD） analysisof the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showin...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Advances in atmospheric sciences 2018, Vol.35 (1), p.38-51
Main Authors: Cheung, Hoffman H. N., Keenlyside, Noel, Omrani, Nour-Eddine, Zhou, Wen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arctic sea ice
Arctic
climate,
Siberian
high,
Icelandic
low,
three-cell
meridional
circulation
Atmospheric circulation
Atmospheric forcing
Atmospheric Sciences
Circulation anomalies
Climate
Climate models
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Geophysics/Geodesy
Ice
Meteorology
North Atlantic Oscillation
Ocean-atmosphere system
Original Paper
Polar environments
Precipitation
Rainfall
Sea ice
Sea ice concentrations
Sea level
Sea level pressure
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Singular value decomposition
Surface temperature
Towards Improving Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Change and its Linkage with Eurasian Mid-latitude Weather and Climate
Uncertainty
Wind
Winds
Winter
Winter climates
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Summary:We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration （SIC） is strongly coupled with theEurasian circulation in the boreal winter （December-March; DJFM）, based on a singular value decomposition （SVD） analysisof the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weakerand there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure （SLP） along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region andthe Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell,where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic.In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. Theanomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern.Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about thecausality of their linkage.
ISSN:0256-1530
1861-9533
DOI:10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5