Poll of Polls: A Compositional Loess Model

A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to obtain an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the...

Full description

Saved in:

Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Scandinavian journal of statistics 2014-06, Vol.41 (2), p.301-310
Main Authors:	Bergman, Jakob, Holmquist, Björn
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	compositional weighted least sum of squares Computation Data smoothing Deviation Estimates Estimation methods Loess Matematik Mathematics Nationalist parties Natural Sciences Naturvetenskap party preferences Political parties Politics Polls Polls & surveys Population estimates Preferences Probability Theory and Statistics Proportions Public opinion Sample size Samples Sannolikhetsteori och statistik simplex smoothing Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistics Studies Voting
Online Access:	Get full text
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!

Description
Summary:	A large number of polls on party preferences are published today. In order to obtain an estimate of the changes in political opinion, the polls may be combined into a poll of polls. We discuss a method for combining polls using the fact that they are compositions and respecting the properties of the compositional sample space (the simplex). The method is easily implemented and the estimate may be computed in linear time. We provide an example with Swedish data from year 2007 to 2010. The method also allows us to present the deviations between the estimated compositions and the observed. In the data set, we note, for example, differences between different polling institutes.
ISSN:	0303-6898 1467-9469 1467-9469