The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Abstract Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global datase...

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Published in:	Nature (London) 2022-08, Vol.608 (7921), p.80-86
Main Authors:	Kreibich, Heidi, Van Loon, Anne F., Schröter, Kai, Ward, Philip J., Mazzoleni, Maurizio, Sairam, Nivedita, Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho, Agafonova, Svetlana, AghaKouchak, Amir, Aksoy, Hafzullah, Alvarez-Garreton, Camila, Aznar, Blanca, Balkhi, Laila, Barendrecht, Marlies H., Biancamaria, Sylvain, Bos-Burgering, Liduin, Bradley, Chris, Budiyono, Yus, Buytaert, Wouter, Capewell, Lucinda, Carlson, Hayley, Cavus, Yonca, Couasnon, Anaïs, Coxon, Gemma, Daliakopoulos, Ioannis, de Ruiter, Marleen C., Delus, Claire, Erfurt, Mathilde, Esposito, Giuseppe, François, Didier, Frappart, Frédéric, Freer, Jim, Frolova, Natalia, Gain, Animesh K., Grillakis, Manolis, Grima, Jordi Oriol, Guzmán, Diego A., Huning, Laurie S., Ionita, Monica, Kharlamov, Maxim, Khoi, Dao Nguyen, Kieboom, Natalie, Kireeva, Maria, Koutroulis, Aristeidis, Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo, Li, Hong-Yi, LLasat, María Carmen, Macdonald, David, Mård, Johanna, Mathew-Richards, Hannah, McKenzie, Andrew, Mejia, Alfonso, Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario, Mens, Marjolein, Mobini, Shifteh, Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna, Nagavciuc, Viorica, Ngo-Duc, Thanh, Thao Nguyen Huynh, Thi, Nhi, Pham Thi Thao, Petrucci, Olga, Nguyen, Hong Quan, Quintana-Seguí, Pere, Razavi, Saman, Ridolfi, Elena, Riegel, Jannik, Sadik, Md Shibly, Savelli, Elisa, Sazonov, Alexey, Sharma, Sanjib, Sörensen, Johanna, Arguello Souza, Felipe Augusto, Stahl, Kerstin, Steinhausen, Max, Stoelzle, Michael, Szalińska, Wiwiana, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Fuqiang, Tokarczyk, Tamara, Tovar, Carolina, Tran, Thi Van Thu, Van Huijgevoort, Marjolein H. J., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vorogushyn, Sergiy, Wagener, Thorsten, Wang, Yueling, Wendt, Doris E., Wickham, Elliot, Yang, Long, Zambrano-Bigiarini, Mauricio, Blöschl, Günter, Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Civil Engineering Climatology Cultural heritage Cultural resources Datasets Disaster management Disasters Disruption Drought Earth Sciences Economics Emergency preparedness Engineering and Technology Environmental degradation Environmental factors Environmental Sciences Exposure Flood damage Flood management Floods Geography Global Changes Hazards Human influences Humanities and Social Sciences Hydrology Impact damage Infrastructure Mean temperatures Property damage Risk management Risk reduction Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Sciences of the Universe Social interactions Teknik Temperature rise Tourism Vattenteknik Water Engineering
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Summary:	Abstract Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .
ISSN:	0028-0836 1476-4687 1476-4687