Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the importation of dogs and cats worldwide

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively asses...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2017-04, Vol.145 (6), p.1168-1182
Main Authors: KWAN, N. C. L., SUGIURA, K., HOSOI, Y., YAMADA, A., SNARY, E. L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Animals
Antibodies
Bats
Cats
Communicable Disease Control - methods
Compliance
Dogs
Health risks
Humans
Immunization
Importation
Imports
Infections
Japan - epidemiology
Life sciences
Neutralization Tests
Original Papers
Parameter estimation
Quarantine
Rabies
Rabies - epidemiology
Rabies - prevention & control
Rabies - transmission
Risk Assessment
Semiconductors
Smuggling
Stochasticity
Titration
Vaccination
Vaccination - veterinary
Waiting period
Zoonoses
Zoonoses - epidemiology
Zoonoses - prevention & control
Zoonoses - transmission
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Summary:Japan has been free from rabies since 1958. A strict import regimen has been adopted since 2004 consisting of identification of an animal with microchip, two-time rabies vaccination, neutralizing antibody titration test and a waiting period of 180 days. The present study aims to quantitatively assess the risk of rabies introduction into Japan through the international importation of dogs and cats and hence provide evidence-based recommendations to strengthen the current rabies prevention system. A stochastic scenario tree model was developed and simulations were run using @RISK. The probability of infection in a single dog or cat imported into Japan is estimated to be 2·16 × 10−9 [90% prediction interval (PI) 6·65 × 10−11–6·48 × 10−9]. The number of years until the introduction of a rabies case is estimated to be 49 444 (90% PI 19 170–94 641) years. The current import regimen is effective in maintaining the very low risk of rabies introduction into Japan and responding to future changes including increases in import level and rabies prevalence in the world. However, non-compliance or smuggling activities could substantially increase the risk of rabies introduction. Therefore, policy amendment which could promote compliance is highly recommended. Scenario analysis demonstrated that the waiting period could be reduced to 90 days and the requirement for vaccination could be reduced to a single vaccination, but serological testing should not be stopped.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268816002995