Estimation of the transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus within a swine house

The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans....

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Epidemiology and infection 2017-10, Vol.145 (13), p.2787-2796
Main Authors: NIELSEN, J. P., LARSEN, T. S., HALASA, T., CHRISTIANSEN, L. E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
African swine fever
African Swine Fever - diagnosis
African Swine Fever - transmission
African Swine Fever - virology
African Swine Fever Virus - physiology
Animal models
Animals
Arboviruses
Asfarviridae
Computer simulation
Contingency
Contingency plans
Disease
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Economic models
Epidemiology
Fever
Hogs
Housing, Animal
Infections
Livestock
Mathematical models
Medical research
Models, Theoretical
Original Papers
Outbreaks
Parameter estimation
Swine
Swine production
United Kingdom
Values
Veterinary medicine
Viruses
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Summary:The spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to β w = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62–1·72), β b = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17–1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0–1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13–19 days after introduction.
ISSN:0950-2688
1469-4409
DOI:10.1017/S0950268817001613