Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of environmental research and public health 2021-04, Vol.18 (8), p.4176
Main Authors: Otieno, Fredrick Tom, Gachohi, John, Gikuma-Njuru, Peter, Kariuki, Patrick, Oyas, Harry, Canfield, Samuel A, Bett, Bernard, Njenga, Moses Kariuki, Blackburn, Jason K
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual precipitation
Anthrax
Anthrax - epidemiology
Climate
Climate Change
Climate models
Climatic conditions
Disease Outbreaks
Dry season
Ecological niches
Ecosystem
Emissions
Epidemics
Evapotranspiration
Geographical distribution
Humans
Infectious diseases
Intervention
Kenya - epidemiology
Outbreaks
Pathogens
Precipitation
Rainfall
Seasonal variations
Surveillance
Tropical environments
Variables
Zoonoses
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Summary:The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km , RCP 4.5, 40,012 km , and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km . The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.
ISSN:1660-4601
1661-7827
1660-4601
DOI:10.3390/ijerph18084176