Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life

Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2021-03, Vol.118 (11), p.1
Main Authors: Goldstein, Joshua R, Cassidy, Thomas, Wachter, Kenneth W
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - mortality
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 vaccines
COVID-19 Vaccines - administration & dosage
Female
Health risks
Humans
Life Expectancy
Life span
Life tables
Male
Mathematical analysis
Mathematical tables
Models, Biological
Risk Factors
SARS-CoV-2
Social Sciences
Vaccination
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Summary:Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2026322118