Marginal warming associated with a COVID-19 quarantine and the implications for disease transmission

During January–February 2020, parts of China faced restricted mobility under COVID-19 quarantines, which have been associated with improved air quality. Because particulate pollutants scatter, diffuse, and absorb incoming solar radiation, a net negative radiative forcing, decreased air pollution can...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Science of the total environment 2021-08, Vol.780, p.146579-146579, Article 146579
Main Authors: Miller, P.W., Reesman, C., Grossman, M.K., Nelson, S.A., Liu, V., Wang, P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Aerosols - analysis
Air Pollutants - analysis
Air Pollution - analysis
China - epidemiology
COVID-19
Environmental Monitoring
Humans
Particulate Matter - analysis
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Temperature
Transmission
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Summary:During January–February 2020, parts of China faced restricted mobility under COVID-19 quarantines, which have been associated with improved air quality. Because particulate pollutants scatter, diffuse, and absorb incoming solar radiation, a net negative radiative forcing, decreased air pollution can yield surface warming. As such, this study (1) documents the evolution of China's January–February 2020 air temperature and concurrent particulate changes; (2) determines the temperature response related to reduced particulates during the COVID-19 quarantine (C19Q); and (3) discusses the conceptual implications for temperature-dependent disease transmission. C19Q particulate evolution is monitored using satellite analyses, and concurrent temperature anomalies are diagnosed using surface stations and Aqua AIRS imagery. Meanwhile, two WRF-Chem simulations are forced by normal emissions and the satellite-based urban aerosol changes, respectively. Urban aerosols decreased from 27.1% of pre-C19Q aerosols to only 17.5% during C19Q. WRF-Chem resolved ~0.2 °C warming across east-central China, that represented a minor, though statistically significant contribution to C19Q temperature anomalies. The largest area of warming is concentrated south of Chengdu and Wuhan where temperatures increased between +0.2–0.3 °C. The results of this study are important for understanding the anthropogenic forcing on regional meteorology. Epidemiologically, the marginal, yet persistent, warming during C19Q may retard temperature-dependent disease transmission, possibly including SARS-CoV-2. [Display omitted] •Urban aerosol fraction decreased from 27.1% to 17.5% during China's COVID response.•Reduced COVID-19 particulate loads yielded +0.2 °C warming across east-central China.•Air quality-related warming may marginally retard disease transmission during lockdowns.
ISSN:0048-9697
1879-1026
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146579