Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine‐adapted plant species at risk of extinction

Aim Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecology and evolution 2020-12, Vol.10 (23), p.13211-13224
Main Authors: Breslin, Peter B., Wojciechowski, Martin F., Albuquerque, Fabio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Archipelagoes
Biodiversity
biogeography
Cactaceae
Cactus
Climate change
Climate change models
Climate effects
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climatic data
Contraction
Correlation analysis
Current distribution
Driving conditions
Endangered & extinct species
endangered species
Endemic plants
Endemic species
Exposure
Extinction
Federal legislation
Flowers & plants
Geographical distribution
Habitats
island endemism
Islands
Mass extinctions
Nature conservation
Original Research
Plant species
Precipitation
range shifts
Serpentine
serpentine adaptation
Soil conditions
Soil temperature
Soils
species distribution modeling
Species extinction
Taxa
Threatened species
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Aim Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios. Location The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Methods We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30‐arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best‐case to worst‐case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods. Main conclusions The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling. The Cactaceae are the fifth most endangered plant or animal family on Earth, and many of those endangered species are narrowly distributed endemics. We investigated the impacts of climate change exposure on the distribution of a vulnerable island endemic cactus in Baja California, using species distribution models. We found that this species is likely to undergo a significant range contraction, which puts the species at risk of extinction over the next 50 years.
ISSN:2045-7758
2045-7758
DOI:10.1002/ece3.6914