State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States

Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social-distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature human behaviour 2020-10, Vol.4 (10), p.1080-1090
Main Authors: Chiu, Weihsueh A, Fischer, Rebecca, Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bayesian analysis
Contact tracing
Contact Tracing - statistics & numerical data
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Humans
Infection Control - statistics & numerical data
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics - prevention & control
Pandemics - statistics & numerical data
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Relaxation
Social distancing
Social Isolation
United States
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Summary:Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social-distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths. We used this model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. As of 22 July 2020, we found that only three states were on track to curtail their epidemic curve. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia may have to double their testing and/or tracing rates and/or rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight states require an even greater measure of combined testing, tracing and distancing. Increased testing and contact-tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating the recent large-scale increases in US cases and deaths.
ISSN:2397-3374
2397-3374
DOI:10.1038/s41562-020-00969-7