The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regionalscale models for forecasting and assessing the course of t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2020-07, Vol.117 (29), p.16732-16738
Main Authors: Bertozzi, Andrea L., Franco, Elisa, Mohler, George, Short, Martin B., Sledge, Daniel
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Antiviral agents
Betacoronavirus - pathogenicity
Coronavirus Infections - epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections - prevention & control
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease control
Epidemic models
Epidemics
Forecasting
Humans
INAUGURAL ARTICLE
Infection Control - methods
Infection Control - organization & administration
Mathematical models
Modelling
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Physical Sciences
Pneumonia, Viral - epidemiology
Pneumonia, Viral - prevention & control
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
Public Health
Public policy
SARS-CoV-2
Scale models
United States - epidemiology
Vaccines
Viral diseases
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Summary:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regionalscale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2006520117