Dynamic Transmission Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-5

Abstract The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Value in health 2012-09, Vol.15 (6), p.828-834
Main Authors: Pitman, Richard, PhD, Fisman, David, MD, MPH, FRCPC, Zaric, Gregory S., PhD, Postma, Maarten, PhD, Kretzschmar, Mirjam, PhD, Edmunds, John, BSc, MSc, PhD, Brisson, Marc, PhD
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Advisory Committees
Best practice
best practices
Communicable diseases
Comparative Effectiveness Research
Disease Transmission, Infectious
dynamic transmission
Evidence-Based Practice
Health economists
Humans
Infection
infectious disease
Internal Medicine
modeling
Models, Theoretical
Nonlinear
Practice Guidelines as Topic
Software
Uncertainty
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Summary:Abstract The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this article.
ISSN:1098-3015
1524-4733
DOI:10.1016/j.jval.2012.06.011