Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO₂ and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of environmental research and public health 2017-07, Vol.14 (7), p.750
Main Authors: Rao, Meenakshi, George, Linda A, Shandas, Vivek, Rosenstiel, Todd N
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Air Pollutants - analysis
Air pollution
Air Pollution - prevention & control
Asthma
Atmospheric chemistry
Child
Child, Preschool
Cities
Conservation of Natural Resources
Emissions
Environmental Monitoring
Health
Humans
Incidence
Land cover
Land use
Models, Theoretical
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogen Dioxide - analysis
Pollutants
Respiratory Tract Diseases - epidemiology
Seasons
Sensitivity analysis
Studies
Trees
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Summary:Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO₂ associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4-12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health.
ISSN:1660-4601
1661-7827
1660-4601
DOI:10.3390/ijerph14070750