Validation of a prognostic score for mortality in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit

Context: The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Aims: The...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Indian journal of critical care medicine 2016-12, Vol.20 (12), p.695-700
Main Authors: Sanchez-Hurtado, Luis, Ángeles-Veléz, Adrian, Tejeda-Huezo, Brigette, García-Cruz, Juan, Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Care and treatment
Elderly patients
Intensive care units
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Summary:Context: The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the SAPS 3 score predictive ability of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. Settings and Design: This study was conducted as a prospective cohort, in two mixed ICUs. Patients and Methods: Two hundred and eleven elderly patients were included. Interventions: None. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAPS 3 measured at the first hour at ICU and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) measured with the worst values in the first 24 h at ICU. The patients were followed until hospital discharge. Statistical Analysis Used: Evaluation of discrimination through area under curve receiver operating characteristic (aROC) and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. Results: The median age was 68 years. The hospital mortality rate was 35.54%. The mean value of SAPS 3 was 62.54 ± 12.51 and APACHE II was 17.46 ± 6.77. The mortality predicted by APACHE II was 24.98 ± 19.96 and for standard SAPS 3 equation 41.18 ± 22.34. The discrimination for SAPS 3 model was aROC = 0.68 (0.62-0.75) and to APACHE II aROC = 0.70 (0.63-0.78). Calibration: APACHE II with HL 10.127 P = 0.26, and standard SAPS 3 equation HL 7.204 P = 0.51. Conclusions: In this study, the prognostic model of SAPS 3 was not found to be accurate in predicting mortality in geriatric patients requiring ICU admission.
ISSN:0972-5229
1998-359X
DOI:10.4103/0972-5229.195702