Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2017-01, Vol.114 (1), p.113-118
Main Authors: Xu, Lei, Stige, Leif C., Chan, Kung-Sik, Zhou, Jie, Yang, Jun, Sang, Shaowei, Wang, Ming, Yang, Zhicong, Yan, Ziqiang, Jiang, Tong, Lu, Liang, Yue, Yujuan, Liu, Xiaobo, Lin, Hualiang, Xu, Jianguo, Liu, Qiyong, Stenseth, Nils Chr
Format: Article
Language:eng ; nor
Subjects:
Aedes - virology
Animals
Biological Sciences
China - epidemiology
Climate
Climate Change
Dengue - epidemiology
Dengue - transmission
Dengue fever
Dengue Virus - pathogenicity
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Insect Vectors - virology
Models, Theoretical
Mosquitoes
Rain
Temperature
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Summary:Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1618558114