Effects of Reductions in Body Mass Index on the Future Osteoarthritis Burden in Canada: A Population‐Based Microsimulation Study

Objective Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that chan...

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Published in:Arthritis care & research (2010) 2016-08, Vol.68 (8), p.1098-1105
Main Authors: Kopec, Jacek A., Sayre, Eric C., Fines, Philippe, Flanagan, William M., Nadeau, Claude, Okhmatovskaia, Anya, Wolfson, Michael C., Buckeridge, David, Dahaghin, Saeideh, Harper, Sam, Heath, Allison, Hennessy, Deirdre, Liu, Richard, Manuel, Doug, Oderkirk, Jillian, Rahman, Mushfiqur, Sharif, Behnam, Smith, Brendan, Tuna, Meltem
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Body Mass Index
Canada - epidemiology
Computer Simulation
Cost of Illness
Female
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Obesity - complications
Osteoarthritis - epidemiology
Prevalence
Young Adult
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Summary:Objective Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. Methods We used a microsimulation computer model of OA based on the Population Health Model platform. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys. Results Under the base‐case scenario, between 2010 and 2030, OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3‐, 0.5‐, or 1‐unit drop in BMI per year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6%, and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2%, and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those people ages ≥50 years for weight reduction would achieve approximately 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI ≥30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. Conclusion Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next 2 decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic.
ISSN:2151-464X
2151-4658
DOI:10.1002/acr.22796