Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza

Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2009-10, Vol.326 (5953), p.726-728
Main Authors: Park, Andrew W, Daly, Janet M, Lewis, Nicola S, Smith, Derek J, Wood, James L.N, Grenfell, Bryan T
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Amino Acid Substitution
Amino acids
Animals
Antigens
Biological and medical sciences
Cellular biology
Disease models
Disease Outbreaks
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Epitopes - immunology
Equine influenza virus
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus - immunology
Horse Diseases - immunology
Horse Diseases - virology
Horses
Humans
Immune system
Immunity
Infections
Infectious diseases
Influenza
Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype - genetics
Influenza A Virus, H3N8 Subtype - immunology
Influenza Vaccines - genetics
Influenza Vaccines - immunology
Microbiology
Modeling
Models, Immunological
Orthomyxoviridae Infections - epidemiology
Orthomyxoviridae Infections - immunology
Orthomyxoviridae Infections - transmission
Orthomyxoviridae Infections - veterinary
Proteins
Species Specificity
Stochastic models
Stochastic Processes
Vaccination
Virology
Viruses
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Description
Summary:Influenza virus evades prevailing natural and vaccine-induced immunity by accumulating antigenic change in the haemagglutinin surface protein. Linking amino acid substitutions in haemagglutinin epitopes to epidemiology has been problematic because of the scarcity of data connecting these scales. We use experiments on equine influenza virus to address this issue, quantifying how key parameters of viral establishment and shedding increase the probability of transmission with genetic distance between previously immunizing virus and challenge virus. Qualitatively similar patterns emerge from analyses based on antigenic distance and from a published human influenza study. Combination of the equine data and epidemiological models allows us to calculate the effective reproductive number of transmission as a function of relevant genetic change in the virus, illuminating the probability of influenza epidemics as a function of immunity.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1175980