Rapid estimation of excess mortality: nowcasting during the heatwave alert in England and Wales in June 2011

BackgroundA Heat-Health Watch system has been established in England and Wales since 2004 as part of the national heatwave plan following the 2003 European-wide heatwave. One important element of this plan has been the development of a timely mortality surveillance system. This article reports the f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Journal of epidemiology and community health (1979) 2012-10, Vol.66 (10), p.866-868
Main Authors:	Green, Helen K, Andrews, Nick J, Bickler, Graham, Pebody, Richard G
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Age Age groups Aged Aged, 80 and over Air Pollution - adverse effects Biological and medical sciences Climate Climate change Climate models Datasets Death Death Certificates England - epidemiology Epidemiology excess mortality Female General aspects Health surveillance Heat Heat Stress Disorders - mortality Heatwave Hot Temperature - adverse effects Humans Influenza Male Medical sciences Miscellaneous Mortality Mortality - trends Nowcasting Older people Pandemics Population Population Surveillance - methods Public health Public Health Surveillance Public health. Hygiene Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine Registration Regression Analysis Risk Prediction Surveillance Time Factors Urban Population Wales - epidemiology
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Summary:	BackgroundA Heat-Health Watch system has been established in England and Wales since 2004 as part of the national heatwave plan following the 2003 European-wide heatwave. One important element of this plan has been the development of a timely mortality surveillance system. This article reports the findings and timeliness of a daily mortality model used to ‘nowcast’ excess mortality (utilising incomplete surveillance data to estimate the number of deaths in near-real time) during a heatwave alert issued by the Met Office for regions in South and East England on 24 June 2011.MethodsDaily death registrations were corrected for reporting delays with historical data supplied by the General Registry Office. These corrected counts were compared with expected counts from an age-specific linear regression model to ascertain if any excess had occurred during the heatwave.ResultsExcess mortality of 367 deaths was detected across England and Wales in ≥85-year-olds on 26 and 27 June 2011, coinciding with the period of elevated temperature. This excess was localised to the east of England and London. It was detected 3 days after the heatwave.ConclusionA daily mortality model was sensitive and timely enough to rapidly detect a small excess, both, at national and regional levels. This tool will be useful when future events of public health significance occur.
ISSN:	0143-005X 1470-2738