Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the te...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the Japan Academy Series B, 2012/07/25, Vol.88(7), pp.385-395
Main Authors: MATSUNO, Taroh, MARUYAMA, Koki, TSUTSUI, Junichi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
2 °C target
Aerosols - analysis
Air Pollution - prevention & control
Air quality management
Atmosphere - chemistry
Atmospheric carbon dioxide
Atmospheric chemistry
Carbon dioxide
Carbon Dioxide - analysis
Chemical properties
climate policy
Climate science
Control
Emissions (Pollution)
Emissions control
emissions scenario
Environmental aspects
Environmental protection
Greenhouse Effect
greenhouse gas
Identification and classification
Internationality
Methods
Original
radiative forcing
representative concentration pathways
Socioeconomic factors
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Summary:Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. (Contributed by MATSUNO, Taroh, M.J.A.)
ISSN:0386-2208
0021-4280
1349-2896
DOI:10.2183/pjab.88.385