Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye

Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized pre...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population and environment 2023-09, Vol.45 (3), p.12-12, Article 12
Main Authors: Delacrétaz, Nathan, Lanz, Bruno, Delju, Amir H., Piguet, Etienne, Rebetez, Martine
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Crop production
Demography
Drought
Environment
Income
Migration
Original Paper
Per capita
Population Economics
Precipitation
Provinces
Public Health
Rainfall
Rural populations
Social Sciences
Sociology
Standardized precipitation index
Variability
Weather
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Summary:Rural populations are particularly exposed to increasing weather variability, notably through agriculture. In this paper, we exploit longitudinal data for Turkish provinces from 2008 to 2018 together with precipitation records over more than 30 years to quantify how variability in a standardized precipitation index (SPI) affects out-migration as an adaptation mechanism. Doing so, we document the role of three potential causal channels: per capita income, agricultural output, and local conflicts. Our results show that negative SPI shocks (droughts) are associated with higher out-migration in rural provinces. A mediated-moderator approach further suggests that changes in per capita income account for more than one quarter of the direct effect of droughts on out-migration, whereas agricultural output is only relevant for provinces in the upper quartile of crop production. Finally, we find evidence that local conflict fatalities increase with drought and trigger out-migration, although this channel is distinct from the direct effect of SPI shocks on out-migration.
ISSN:0199-0039
1573-7810
DOI:10.1007/s11111-023-00423-6