Recurrence of bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain: Risk factors and prediction

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed “breakdowns”, has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, a...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Preventive veterinary medicine 2011-10, Vol.102 (1), p.22-29
Main Authors: Karolemeas, K., M cKinley, T.J., Clifton-Hadley, R.S., Goodchild, A.V., Mitchell, A., Johnston, W.T., Conlan, A.J.K., Donnelly, C.A., Wood, J.L.N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal Husbandry
Animals
Bovine tuberculosis
Case-Control Studies
Case-control study
Cattle
Dairying
Disease Outbreaks - veterinary
Female
Incidence
Models, Biological
Mycobacterium bovis
Prediction
Recurrent breakdowns
Risk Factors
Secondary Prevention
Tuberculosis, Bovine - epidemiology
Tuberculosis, Bovine - prevention & control
United Kingdom - epidemiology
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important economic disease worldwide with implications for both animal and human health. In Great Britain the number of herds that test positive for bTB, termed “breakdowns”, has increased over the last two decades. Despite more intensive testing during a breakdown, around 23% of breakdowns recur within 12 months of the previous breakdown ending, and around 38% within 24 months. These “recurrent” breakdowns may be important for onward transmission of infection. Detailed case-control data were analysed to identify factors associated with recurrence within 12 months. The model predicted 83% of all recurrent breakdowns, with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 44%. A further model, restricted to data currently available nationally, was not sufficient to predict recurrence reliably; at a sensitivity of 72–76%, the PPV was 33–36%, when validated on independent data. Factors identified to be associated with recurrence are consistent with previous studies; namely, the number of reactors, a recent bTB history in the herd and a lack of association with the confirmation status of the initial breakdown. These variables are indicative of a higher level of infection or residual infection, and could be useful in the future development of predictive models for bTB recurrence.
ISSN:0167-5877
1873-1716
DOI:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.06.004