Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2010-09, Vol.102 (1-2), p.77-102
Main Authors: Stöckle, Claudio O, Nelson, Roger L, Higgins, Stewart, Brunner, Jay, Grove, Gary, Boydston, Rick, Whiting, Mathew, Kruger, Chad
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Apples
Assessments
Atmospheric Sciences
Carbon dioxide
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Computer simulation
Crops
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Economics
Freshwater
General circulation models
Greenhouse effect
Pests
Plant growth
Potatoes
Precipitation
Predictions
Solanum tuberosum
Soybeans
Temperature
Triticum aestivum
Water supply
Wheat
Winter
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO₂ elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO₂ and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-010-9851-4