Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M w 4.0-7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°-32°N and 87°-100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958)...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2011, Vol.56 (1), p.145-167
Main Authors: Yadav, R. B. S, Tripathi, J. N, Shanker, D, Rastogi, B. K, Das, M. C, Kumar, Vikas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Catalogues
Civil Engineering
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Earthquake probability
Earthquakes
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Environmental Management
Exact sciences and technology
Extreme value theory
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hazards
Heterogeneity
Hydrogeology
Natural Hazards
Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc
Northeast
Original Paper
Probability
Return periods
Seismic engineering
Seismic hazard
Seismic phenomena
Seismology
Thrust
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Summary:The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M w 4.0-7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°-32°N and 87°-100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M w 6.5 are about 6-7 years, 9-10 years, 59-78 years, 72-115 years and 88-127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.
ISSN:1573-0840
0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-010-9557-y