Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability

Assessments of the regional impacts of human-induced climate change on a wide range of social and environmental systems are fundamental for determining the appropriate policy responses to climate change. Yet regional-scale impact assessments are fraught with difficulties, such as the uncertainties o...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Nature (London) 1999-02, Vol.397 (6721), p.688-691
Main Authors:	Hulme, Mike, Barrow, Elaine M, Arnell, Nigel W, Harrison, Paula A, Johns, Timothy C, Downing, Thomas E
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Assessments Climate Climate change Climatic changes Earth sciences Earth, ocean, space Environmental impact Exact sciences and technology Forecasts and trends Greenhouse effect Marine and continental quaternary Mathematical models Regional Regions Specifications Strategy Surficial geology Uncertainty
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Summary:	Assessments of the regional impacts of human-induced climate change on a wide range of social and environmental systems are fundamental for determining the appropriate policy responses to climate change. Yet regional-scale impact assessments are fraught with difficulties, such as the uncertainties of regional climate-change prediction, the specification of appropriate environmental-response models, and the interpretation of impact results in the context of future socio-economic and technological change. The effects of such confounding factors on estimates of climate-change impacts have only been poorly explored. Here we use results from recent global climate simulations and two environmental response models, to consider systematically the effects of natural climate variability (30-year timescales) and future climate-change uncertainties on river runoff and agricultural potential in Europe. We find that, for some regions, the impacts of human-induced climate change by 2050 will be undetectable relative to those due to natural multi-decadal climate variability. If misleading assessments of-and inappropriate adaptation strategies to-climate-change impacts are to be avoided, future studies should consider the impacts of natural multi-decadal climate variability alongside those of human-induced climate change.
ISSN:	0028-0836 1476-4687