The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios—Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios an...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy 2008-10, Vol.36 (10), p.3754-3763
Main Authors: Mander, Sarah. L., Bows, Alice, Anderson, Kevin. L., Shackley, Simon, Agnolucci, Paolo, Ekins, Paul
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Applied sciences
Atmospheric pollution
Backcasting
Carbon dioxide
Climate change
Combustion and energy production
Emissions control
Energy
Energy economics
Energy policy
Energy scenarios
Energy scenarios Backcasting UK
Energy utilization
Exact sciences and technology
General, economic and professional studies
Innovation
Methodology. Modelling
Pollution
Pollution sources. Measurement results
Stakeholder
Studies
Sustainable development
United Kingdom
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Summary:The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.003