Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes
Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhou...
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Published in: | Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2003-07, Vol.301 (5632), p.479-483 |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | eng |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | Observations indicate that the height of the tropopause-the boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere-has increased by several hundred meters since 1979. Comparable increases are evident in climate model experiments. The latter show that human-induced changes in ozone and well-mixed greenhouse gases account for ~80% of the simulated rise in tropopause height over 1979-1999. Their primary contributions are through cooling of the stratosphere (caused by ozone) and warming of the troposphere (caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases). A model-predicted fingerprint of tropopause height changes is statistically detectable in two different observational ("reanalysis") data sets. This positive detection result allows us to attribute overall tropopause height changes to a combination of anthropogenic and natural external forcings, with the anthropogenic component predominating. |
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ISSN: | 0036-8075 1095-9203 |