Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling str...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2010-01, Vol.327 (5964), p.454-458
Main Authors: Bender, Morris A, Knutson, Thomas R, Tuleya, Robert E, Sirutis, Joseph J, Vecchi, Gabriel A, Garner, Stephen T, Held, Isaac M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Categories
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Cyclones
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Global climate models
Global warming
Human influences
Hurricanes
Marine
Meteorology
Modeling
Projection
Simulations
Storms
Storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms
Strategy
Temperature control
Tropical climates
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Summary:Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203
DOI:10.1126/science.1180568