Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size exp...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Conservation biology 2008-02, Vol.22 (1), p.140-150
Main Authors: SEKERCIOGLU, CAGAN H., SCHNEIDER, STEPHEN H., FAY, JOHN P., LOARIE, SCOTT R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Altitude
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Animals
Applied ecology
avian biogeography
biodiversity
biogeografía
Biological and medical sciences
Birds
Birds - physiology
bosques tropicales
calentamiento global
Climate change
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Conservation
Conservation biology
Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife
Demography
Earth, ocean, space
Ecosystem
Endangered & extinct species
endémicos de montaña
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Extinct species
extinction likelihood
Extinction, Biological
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
GIS
Global warming
Greenhouse Effect
Habitat conservation
Habitat loss
Habitats
lapse rates
macroecology
Meteorology
Models, Biological
mountain endemics
ornithology
Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking
Risk factors
SIG
Species
Species extinction
tasas de abatimiento
Threatened species
tropical forests
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Summary:Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species. /// Las limitaciones en la distribución de especies impuestas por los efectos climáticos, ecológicos y fisiológicos de la altitud son determinantes importantes del riesgo de extinción. Modelamos los efectos de los límites altitudinales sobre el riesgo de extinción de aves terrestres, 87% del total de especies de aves. La limitación altitudinal del rango de distribución explicó 97% de la variación en la probabilidad de estar en una categoría de riesgo de extinción de la Unión Mundial para la Conservación (IUCN). Mediante un modelo que combinó limitaciones altitudinales, esce
ISSN:0888-8892
1523-1739
DOI:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00852.x