Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation I...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Internal medicine journal 2005-11, Vol.35 (11), p.677-680
Main Authors: Tong, S., Hu, W., Nicholls, N., Dale, P., MacKenzie, J. S., Patz, J., McMichael, A. J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alphavirus Infections - epidemiology
Alphavirus Infections - transmission
Animals
Australia - epidemiology
Biological and medical sciences
Climate
Culicidae
Disease Vectors
General aspects
Humans
Medical sciences
Oceans and Seas
Periodicity
Population Surveillance - methods
Prevalence
Regression Analysis
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk Factors
Ross River virus
time series
Topography, Medical - methods
vector
Water Movements
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Summary:This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998–2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20–2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21–1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13–1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30–2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide‐spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations. (Intern Med J 2005; 35: 677–680)
ISSN:1444-0903
1445-5994
DOI:10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x