The prevalence and risk factors associated with esophageal varices in subjects with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis

Background The factors predictive of the presence or the absence of esophageal varices in hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis have not been defined. Objectives To define the prevalence of esophageal varices and the factors that are positively and negatively with them in hepatitis C and adv...

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Published in:Gastrointestinal endoscopy 2006-12, Vol.64 (6), p.855-864
Main Authors: Sanyal, Arun J., Fontana, Robert J., Di Bisceglie, Adrian M., Everhart, James E., Doherty, Michael C., Everson, Gregory T., Donovan, John A., Malet, Peter F., Mehta, Savant, Sheikh, Mohammed, Reid, Andrea E., Ghany, Marc G., Gretch, David R., the HALT-C Trial Group
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Antiviral Agents - therapeutic use
Biopsy
Disease Progression
Endoscopy, Gastrointestinal
Esophageal and Gastric Varices - diagnosis
Esophageal and Gastric Varices - epidemiology
Esophageal and Gastric Varices - etiology
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Hepatitis C, Chronic - complications
Hepatitis C, Chronic - diagnosis
Hepatitis C, Chronic - drug therapy
Humans
Liver - pathology
Liver Cirrhosis - complications
Liver Cirrhosis - diagnosis
Liver Cirrhosis - prevention & control
Male
Middle Aged
Platelet Count
Prevalence
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Risk Factors
Time Factors
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Summary:Background The factors predictive of the presence or the absence of esophageal varices in hepatitis C virus (HCV) and advanced fibrosis have not been defined. Objectives To define the prevalence of esophageal varices and the factors that are positively and negatively with them in hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis. Design A prospective study of esophageal varices and associated risk factors in subjects with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis. Setting Prerandomization data from the HALT-C (hepatitis C long-term antiviral treatment against cirrhosis) clinical trial. Patients and Intervention Subjects with bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis, who were virologic nonresponders to treatment with pegylated interferon alpha 2a and ribavirin, underwent endoscopy. Results Sixteen percent of subjects with bridging fibrosis (95/598) and 39% of subjects with cirrhosis (164/418) had varices ( P < .0001); 2% of subjects with bridging fibrosis (13/598) and 11% of those with cirrhosis (48/418) had medium or large varices. Subjects with bridging fibrosis and varices had a significantly lower platelet count and higher bilirubin and international normalized ratio (INR) compared with those without varices, suggesting that the biopsy may have underestimated the severity of fibrosis. A platelet count >150,000/mm3 was associated with a negative predictive value of 99% for esophageal varices. By logistic regression modeling, African American race and female sex were protective, whereas a lower platelet count and higher bilirubin and INR predicted varices (c statistic, 0.758). Conclusions The risk of having varices increases with decreasing platelet counts, increasing bilirubin, and INR. The probability of having medium or large varices at platelet counts >150,000/mm3 is negligible in this population.
ISSN:0016-5107
1097-6779
DOI:10.1016/j.gie.2006.03.007