Are Meteorological Parameters Associated with Acute Respiratory Tract Infections?

Background. Information on the onset of epidemics of acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) is useful in timing preventive strategies (eg, the passive immunization of high-risk infants against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]). Aiming at better predictions of the seasonal activity of ARI pathoge...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Clinical infectious diseases 2009-09, Vol.49 (6), p.861-868
Main Authors: du Prel, Jean-Baptist, Puppe, Wolfram, Gröndahl, Britta, Knuf, Markus, Weigl, Franziska, Schaaff, Franziska, Schmitt, Heinz-Josef
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acute Disease
Adenoviridae - isolation & purification
Adenovirus Infections, Human - epidemiology
Adenovirus Infections, Human - etiology
Adenoviruses
ARTICLES AND COMMENTARIES
Biological and medical sciences
Child
Children
Children & youth
Climate
Climate models
Disease Outbreaks
Disease prevention
Epidemics
Germany - epidemiology
Hospitalization
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Human respiratory syncytial virus
Humans
Humidity
Infectious diseases
Influenza A virus - isolation & purification
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - etiology
Medical sciences
Meteorology
Pathogens
Picornaviridae Infections - epidemiology
Picornaviridae Infections - etiology
Predictive Value of Tests
Relative humidity
Respiratory distress syndrome
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - epidemiology
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections - etiology
Respiratory Syncytial Viruses - isolation & purification
Respiratory tract infections
Respiratory Tract Infections - epidemiology
Respiratory Tract Infections - etiology
Respiratory Tract Infections - virology
Retrospective Studies
Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction
Rhinovirus
Rhinovirus - isolation & purification
Seasons
Temperature
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Summary:Background. Information on the onset of epidemics of acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) is useful in timing preventive strategies (eg, the passive immunization of high-risk infants against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]). Aiming at better predictions of the seasonal activity of ARI pathogens, we investigated the influence of climate on hospitalizations for ARIs. Methods. Samples obtained from 3044 children hospitalized with ARIs in Mainz, Germany, were tested for pathogens with a multiplex reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from 2001 through 2006. Hospitalizations for ARIs were correlated with meteorological parameters recorded at the University of Mainz. The frequency of hospitalization for RSV infection was predicted on the basis of multiple time series analysis. Results. Influenza A, RSV, and adenovirus were correlated with temperature and rhinovirus to relative humidity. In a time series model that included seasonal and climatic conditions, RSV-associated hospitalizations were predictable. Conclusions. Seasonality of certain ARI pathogens can be explained by meteorological influences. The model presented herein is a first step toward predicting annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.
ISSN:1058-4838
1537-6591
DOI:10.1086/605435