The impact of turnout on electoral choices: an econometric analysis of the French case

The rational choice theory of abstention and turnout has focused on the “paradox of [not] voting”. Because of this focalization, other important problems have been left out, notably the possibility that electoral results are dependent on the number and characteristics of those who decide to vote. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Electoral studies 2000-06, Vol.19 (2), p.393-412
Main Authors: Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine, Lafay, Jean-Dominique, Servais, Marie
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abstention
Case Study
Economic Conditions
Economics of elections
Elections
Electorate
France
French elections
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR
Political participation
POLITICAL THEORY
RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY
Turnout
VOTING
Voting Behavior
Voting behaviour
Voting turnout
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Summary:The rational choice theory of abstention and turnout has focused on the “paradox of [not] voting”. Because of this focalization, other important problems have been left out, notably the possibility that electoral results are dependent on the number and characteristics of those who decide to vote. This question can be dealt with only within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Such a model is built and estimated on French data. The results are clear. Not only is interdependence strong, but it also depends on the partisan affiliation of the incumbent (increasing/decreasing participation benefits/hurts the left-wing coalition). The empirical results also confirm that voting is not just an instrumental activity but also a means for expressive and signaling actions.
ISSN:0261-3794
1873-6890
DOI:10.1016/S0261-3794(99)00058-X