RECAPTURING THE FALKLANDS: MODELS OF CONSERVATIVE POPULARITY, 1979-1983

SOME SCHOLARS HAVE ARGUED THAT THE IMPACT OF THE FALKLANDS WAR ON CONSERVATIVE POPULARITY WAS INCONSEQUENTIAL. THEIR ANALYSES RAISE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PARTY SUPPORT. THIS ESSAY CONTENDS THAT THE STEPWISE REGRESSION PROCEDURES EMPLOYED BY THESE SCHOLARS ARE MIS...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:British journal of political science 1990-01, Vol.20 (1), p.63-82
Main Authors: Clarke, H D, Mishler, W, Whiteley, P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Conservatism
CONSERVATIVE PARTY (ALL NATIONS)
FALKLAND ISLANDS
GREAT BRITAIN
POLITICAL PARTY
War
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Summary:SOME SCHOLARS HAVE ARGUED THAT THE IMPACT OF THE FALKLANDS WAR ON CONSERVATIVE POPULARITY WAS INCONSEQUENTIAL. THEIR ANALYSES RAISE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF PARTY SUPPORT. THIS ESSAY CONTENDS THAT THE STEPWISE REGRESSION PROCEDURES EMPLOYED BY THESE SCHOLARS ARE MISLEADING, PARTICULARLY WHEN PREDICTOR VARIABLES ARE HIGHLY INTERCORRELATED. BOX-JENKINS ANALYSES DEMONSTRATE THAT THE FALKLANDS STRONGLY INFLUENCED CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT, NET OF THE EFFECTS OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND PERSONAL ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE LATTER VARIABLE IN THE MODELS CONFIRMS PREVIOUS ARGUMENTS ABOUT THE ROLE OF SUBJECTIVE ECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PARTY POPULARITY FUNCTIONS. BUT NON-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ARE ALSO RELEVANT, AND POPULARITY FUNCTIONS THAT MODEL THEM CORRECTLY ENHANCE THE UNDERSTANDING OF BOTH THE ECONOMICS AND THE POLITICS OF PARTY SUPPORT.
ISSN:0007-1234