Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates

A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental & resource economics 2002, Vol.21 (1), p.47-73
Main Author: Tol, Richard S.J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
adaptation
Capital losses
Climate change
Cost benefit analysis
Cost estimates
Economic theory
Ecosystems
Energy consumption
Environment
Environmental degradation
Environmental economics
Environmental impact
Environmental policy
Estimates
Estimation
General circulation models
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
impacts
Natural resources
Precipitation
Sea level
Standard deviation
Statistical analysis
Studies
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that cite this one
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Summary:A selection of the potential impacts of climate change – on agriculture,forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energyconsumption, and water resources – are estimated and valued in monetaryterms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internallyconsistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of theuncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following themeta-analytical methods described here. A 1 °C increase in the globalmean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect onthe OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on othercountries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however,include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimatesdepend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a1 °C warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standarddeviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be anegative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, worldimpact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002
ISSN:0924-6460
1573-1502
DOI:10.1023/A:1014500930521