Lies, Damn Lies, and Pre-Election Polling

This paper asks the question: how well do pre-election polls forecast the actual results of elections in the United States? Voter uncertainty and sample selection bias are only two possible problems that might render pre-election polls unreliable and biased forecasts of the election outcome, even wh...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American economic review 2009-05, Vol.99 (2), p.316-322
Main Authors: Walsh, Elias, Dolfin, Sarah, DiNardo, John
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Analytical forecasting
Bias
Binomial distribution
Candidates
Central limit theorem
Deceit
Density estimation
Election forecasting
Election results
Elections
Electoral behaviour
Electoral results
Forecasting
Forecasts
Political candidates
Polls
Polls & surveys
Polls, Votes, and Elections
Presidential elections
Probabilities
Public interest
Public opinion surveys
Public policy
Sampling bias
Sampling error
State elections
Studies
Surveys
U.S.A
Voter behavior
Voting
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Summary:This paper asks the question: how well do pre-election polls forecast the actual results of elections in the United States? Voter uncertainty and sample selection bias are only two possible problems that might render pre-election polls unreliable and biased forecasts of the election outcome, even when conducted close to the election. Given the relative ease with which one can arrive at a good guess of the outcome of a presidential race at the state level by using the previous election's result, it is clear that the fact that the polls can often predict the winner is little reason to be sanguine about the "value added" they provide. This analysis suggests that until a more severe test is proposed, there is considerable reason for skepticism.
ISSN:0002-8282
1944-7981
DOI:10.1257/aer.99.2.316