Uncertainty of forest carbon stock changes - implications to the total uncertainty of GHG inventory of Finland

Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of the efforts needed for development of the inventory. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions of all Kyoto sectors...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Climatic change 2007-04, Vol.81 (3-4), p.391-413
Main Authors:	Monni, S, Peltoniemi, M, Palosuo, T, Lehtonen, A, Mäkipää, R, Savolainen, I
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Accuracy Agriculture Applied sciences Atmospheric pollution Biomass Carbon Climate change Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Conventions Earth, ocean, space Emissions Emissions trading Estimates Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Forestry General processes of purification and dust removal Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Kyoto Protocol Land use Meteorology Monte Carlo simulation Pollution Prevention and purification methods Uncertainty
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Summary:	Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of the efforts needed for development of the inventory. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions of all Kyoto sectors and gases for Finland consolidated with estimates of emissions/removals from LULUCF categories. In Finland, net GHG emissions in 2003 were around 69 Tg (±15 Tg) CO₂ equivalents. The uncertainties in forest carbon sink estimates in 2003 were larger than in most other emission categories, but of the same order of magnitude as in carbon stock change estimates in other land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) categories, and in N₂O emissions from agricultural soils. Uncertainties in sink estimates of 1990 were lower, due to better availability of data. Results of this study indicate that inclusion of the forest carbon sink to GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC increases uncertainties in net emissions notably. However, the decrease in precision is accompanied by an increase in the accuracy of the overall net GHG emissions due to improved completeness of the inventory. The results of this study can be utilised when planning future GHG mitigation protocols and emission trading schemes and when analysing environmental benefits of climate conventions.
ISSN:	0165-0009 1573-1480