Gambles vs. quasi-realistic scenarios: Expectations to find probability and risk-defusing information

The paper investigates predecisional information search in risky decisions, specifically information concerning the probability of a negative outcome and whether a risk-defusing operator (RDO) is available. Experiment 1 (54 participants) tested the hypothesis that search for such information is trig...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Acta psychologica 2008-02, Vol.127 (2), p.222-236
Main Authors: Huber, Oswald, Huber, Odilo W.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Biological and medical sciences
Choice Behavior - physiology
Cognition. Intelligence
Cues
Decision Making - physiology
Decision making. Choice
Decision process
Female
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Gambling - psychology
Humans
Information search
Male
Probability
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Risk
Risk defusing
Risk-Taking
Risky decision making
Students - psychology
Task Performance and Analysis
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Summary:The paper investigates predecisional information search in risky decisions, specifically information concerning the probability of a negative outcome and whether a risk-defusing operator (RDO) is available. Experiment 1 (54 participants) tested the hypothesis that search for such information is triggered by expectations that it can be obtained in the situation. Cues for the availability of information were manipulated. It was predicted that cues mentioning possible information sources raise expectations and consequently increase search activity. Furthermore, gambles were expected to differ from other real world contexts, with lower expectations for RDOs and higher ones for probabilities. The Method of Active Information Search was employed. The number of questions asked about probability and RDOs in different conditions confirmed the hypotheses. Experiment 2 (36 participants) ruled out the alternative interpretation that the expectation to actually find favorable probabilities or applicable RDOs respectively, rather than the expectation to obtain information, determined information search.
ISSN:0001-6918
1873-6297
DOI:10.1016/j.actpsy.2007.05.002