The assessment and forecasting of carbon emission for Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi of China

For regional development, the assessment of regional low-carbon development level can fully reflect the current situation of low-carbon development, and the carbon emission forecasting can reveal the future trend of carbon emission and the pressure of emission reduction. It is significant to assess...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science and pollution research international 2023-12, Vol.30 (59), p.124155-124169
Main Authors: Zhu, Suling, Zhang, Di, Zhang, Le, Luo, Lijiao, Li, Min
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Carbon
Carbon - analysis
Carbon content
Carbon Dioxide
China
Earth and Environmental Science
Economic Development
Ecotoxicology
Emission analysis
Emissions
Emissions control
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Forecasting
Mathematical models
Model accuracy
R&D
Regional analysis
Regional development
Regional planning
Research & development
Research Article
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:For regional development, the assessment of regional low-carbon development level can fully reflect the current situation of low-carbon development, and the carbon emission forecasting can reveal the future trend of carbon emission and the pressure of emission reduction. It is significant to assess the low-carbon development level and forecast carbon emission. Therefore, this research constructs an index system to objectively reflect the low-carbon development level, and proposes IE-TOPSIS comprehensive assessment method to assess the regional low-carbon development level. For promoting the low-carbon development of the less developed areas in China, Gansu, Qinghai, and Shaanxi provinces are selected as the research objects. The results of comprehensive assessment show that low-carbon development level of the three provinces over past decade had an increasing trend. Furthermore, this research establishes a GM-GRA-DPC-PSOSVR combined forecasting model for carbon emission forecasting and it has higher forecasting accuracy than individual models. From 2021 to 2025, the forecasting results show that carbon emission of Shaanxi will continue to increase under the current development pattern, Gansu will increase slowly, while Qinghai will decrease.
ISSN:1614-7499
0944-1344
1614-7499
DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-30964-0