Derivation and internal validation of a clinical prediction score to predict major effect or death in acute metamfetamine toxicity

Metamfetamine use can cause serious complications or death. We aimed to derive and internally validate a clinical prediction score to predict major effect or death in acute metamfetamine toxicity. We performed secondary analysis of 1,225 consecutive cases reported from all local public emergency dep...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Clinical toxicology (Philadelphia, Pa.) Pa.), 2023-03, Vol.61 (3), p.146-152
Main Authors: Lam, Rex Pui Kin, Chan, Chi Keung, Tse, Man Li, Lau, Eric Ho Yin, Dai, Zonglin, Tsui, Matthew Sik Hon, Rainer, Timothy Hudson
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
clinical prediction rules
emergency department
Emergency Service, Hospital
Glasgow Coma Scale
Hong Kong
Humans
Male
Metamfetamine
poison centres
poisoning
Risk Assessment
ROC Curve
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Summary:Metamfetamine use can cause serious complications or death. We aimed to derive and internally validate a clinical prediction score to predict major effect or death in acute metamfetamine toxicity. We performed secondary analysis of 1,225 consecutive cases reported from all local public emergency departments to the Hong Kong Poison Information Centre between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. We split the entire dataset chronologically into derivation (first 70% of cases) and validation (the remaining 30% of cases) cohorts. Univariate analysis was conducted, followed by multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort to identify independent predictors of major effect or death. We developed a clinical prediction score based on the regression coefficients of the independent predictors in the regression model and compared its discriminatory performance with five existing early warning scores in the validation cohort. The MASCOT (Male, Age, Shock, Consciousness, Oxygen, Tachycardia) score was derived based on the six independent predictors: male gender (1 point), age (≥35 years, 1 point), shock (mean arterial pressure
ISSN:1556-3650
1556-9519
DOI:10.1080/15563650.2022.2164297