Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 1996-02, Vol.175 (1), p.595-613
Main Authors: Parkin, G., O'Donnell, G., Ewen, J., Bathurst, J.C., O'Connell, P.E., Lavabre, J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
change
climate change
computer simulation
Freshwater
land use
physical models
shetran
simulation models
watershed hydrology
watersheds
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Summary:Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol., 175: 583–594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making ‘blind’ predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging.
ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707
DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80027-8