Early predictors of conversion to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

•The estimated number of patients converted to SPMS was 10% at 10-years, 50% at 20-years, and 93% at 30-years.•Older age at onset, higher EDSS at onset, smoking, motor dysfunction, cerebellar dysfunction, and presence of lesions in spinal cord increased the risk of conversion from RRMS to SPMS.•Ther...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Multiple sclerosis and related disorders 2021-09, Vol.54, p.103115-103115, Article 103115
Main Authors: Barzegar, Mahdi, Najdaghi, Soroush, Afshari-Safavi, Alireza, Nehzat, Nasim, Mirmosayyeb, Omid, Shaygannejad, Vahid
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Early highly effective treatment
Escalation approach
Multiple sclerosis
Prognostic factors
Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis
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Summary:•The estimated number of patients converted to SPMS was 10% at 10-years, 50% at 20-years, and 93% at 30-years.•Older age at onset, higher EDSS at onset, smoking, motor dysfunction, cerebellar dysfunction, and presence of lesions in spinal cord increased the risk of conversion from RRMS to SPMS.•There was no significant difference between escalation and early intensive therapy approaches in the risk of transition to progressive phase. : We conducted this study to estimated the time of conversion from relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) to SPMS and its early predictor factors. : In this retrospective study, demographic, clinical, and imaging data from MS patients at diagnosis were extracted. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between various baseline characteristics and conversion to SPMS. We also assessed the association brtween escalation and early intensive therapy approaches with transition to progressive phase. : Out of 1903 patients with RRMS at baseline, 293 (15.4%) patients progressed to SPMS during follow-up. The estimated number of patients converted to SPMS was 10% at 10-years, 50% at 20-years, and 93% at 30-years. On multivariate Cox regression analysis older age at onset (HR: 1.067, 95%CI: 1.048–1.085, p 
ISSN:2211-0348
2211-0356
DOI:10.1016/j.msard.2021.103115