A nonlinear model for stage-structured population dynamics with nonlocal density-dependent regulation: An application to the fall armyworm moth

The assessment and the management of the risks linked to insect pests can be supported by the use of physiologically-based demographic models. These models are useful in population ecology to simulate the dynamics of stage-structured populations, by means of functions (e.g., development, mortality a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Mathematical biosciences 2021-05, Vol.335, p.108573-108573, Article 108573
Main Authors: Gilioli, Gianni, Colli, Pierluigi, Colturato, Michele, Gervasio, Paola, Sperandio, Giorgio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Butterflies & moths
Dependent variables
Fecundity
Insects
Invasive species
Mortality
Nonlinear differential equations
Numerical simulation
Partial differential equations
Pest management
Pests
Physiological responses
Physiologically-based models
Population
Population density
Population dynamics
Population ecology
Risk management
Solvability of nonlinear Kolmogorov equations
Spodoptera frugiperda
Time dependence
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Summary:The assessment and the management of the risks linked to insect pests can be supported by the use of physiologically-based demographic models. These models are useful in population ecology to simulate the dynamics of stage-structured populations, by means of functions (e.g., development, mortality and fecundity rate functions) realistically representing the nonlinear individuals physiological responses to environmental forcing variables. Since density-dependent responses are important regulating factors in population dynamics, we propose a nonlinear physiologically-based Kolmogorov model describing the dynamics of a stage-structured population in which a time-dependent mortality rate is coupled with a nonlocal density-dependent term. We prove existence and uniqueness of the solution for this resulting highly nonlinear partial differential equation. Then, the equation is discretized by finite volumes in space and semi-implicit backward Euler scheme in time. The model is applied for simulating the population dynamics of the fall armyworm moth (Spodoptera frugiperda), a highly invasive pest threatening agriculture worldwide. •We develop a physiologically-based demographic model for structured populations.•We model the nonlinear species’ physiological responses to environmental drivers.•A density-dependent control term is introduced to achieve biological realism.•We analyze the population dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda.
ISSN:0025-5564
1879-3134
DOI:10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108573