A two decades study on ozone variability and trend over the main urban areas of the São Paulo state, Brazil

In this paper, we analyze the variability of the ozone concentration over São Paulo Macrometropolis, as well the factors, which determined the tendency observed in the last two decades. Time series of hourly ozone concentrations measured at 16 automated stations from an air quality network from 1996...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental science and pollution research international 2019-11, Vol.26 (31), p.31699-31716
Main Authors: Schuch, Daniel, de Freitas, Edmilson Dias, Espinosa, Sergio Ibarra, Martins, Leila Droprinchinski, Carvalho, Vanessa Silveira Barreto, Ramin, Bruna Ferreira, Silva, Jayne Sousa, Martins, Jorge Alberto, de Fatima Andrade, Maria
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air Pollution - analysis
Air quality
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Brazil
Diesel fuels
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecotoxicology
Emission measurements
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Environmental science
Gasohol
Mathematical models
Normal distribution
Outdoor air quality
Ozone
Ozone - analysis
Pollution monitoring
Quantiles
Radiation
Radiation effects
Regression analysis
Regression models
Research Article
Residential areas
Residential location
Statistical analysis
Statistical models
Time series
Trends
Urban areas
Variability
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:In this paper, we analyze the variability of the ozone concentration over São Paulo Macrometropolis, as well the factors, which determined the tendency observed in the last two decades. Time series of hourly ozone concentrations measured at 16 automated stations from an air quality network from 1996 to 2017 were analyzed. The temporal variability of ozone concentrations exhibits well-defined daily and seasonal patterns. Ozone presents a significant positive correlation between the number of cases (thresholds of 100–160 μg m −3 ) and the fuel sales of gasohol and diesel. The ozone concentrations do not exhibit significant long-term trends, but some sites present positive trends that occurs in sites in the proximity of busy roads and negative trends that occurs in sites located in residential areas or next to trees. The effect of atmospheric process of transport and ozone formation was analyzed using a quantile regression model (QRM). This statistical model can deal with the nonlinearities that appear in the relationship of ozone and other variables and is applicable to time series with non-normal distribution. The resulting model explains 0.76% of the ozone concentration variability (with global coefficient of determination R 1 = 0.76) providing a better representation than an ordinary least square regression model (with coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.52); the effect of radiation and temperature are the most critical in determining the highest ozone quantiles.
ISSN:0944-1344
1614-7499
DOI:10.1007/s11356-019-06200-z