Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change

Climate change is projected to be particularly strong in the northern latitudes. Thus, boreal or arctic species are especially susceptible to the effects of climate warming. In this work we forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predict...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biological conservation 2008-05, Vol.141 (5), p.1343-1353
Main Authors: Virkkala, Raimo, Heikkinen, Risto K., Leikola, Niko, Luoto, Miska
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Arctic
Aves
Bioclimatic envelope
Biological and medical sciences
boreal forests
Climate change
climate models
conservation areas
Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Land bird species
Northern-boreal
Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking
prediction
Range reduction
simulation models
Vertebrates: general zoology, morphology, phylogeny, systematics, cytogenetics, geographical distribution
wild birds
wildlife habitats
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Summary:Climate change is projected to be particularly strong in the northern latitudes. Thus, boreal or arctic species are especially susceptible to the effects of climate warming. In this work we forecasted changes in the distributions of 27 northern land bird species in the 21st century, based on predicted rates of climate change. We used climate and bird atlas data of Finland and northern Norway from 1971–1990 to establish bioclimatic envelope models for each species. Next, these models were applied to two climate scenarios (A2 and B1) from the general circulation model HadCM3 to forecast potential future distributions of the study species over a larger area also covering parts of nearby Sweden and Russia. This area stretches through the boreal and continental arctic zone in northern Europe. In the A2 scenario the predicted global change in mean temperature is 3.8°C by 2100 and in the B1 scenario 2.0°C. Our results suggest that most of the northern land bird species will lose most of their climatic space by 2080 both in the more severe (A2, average predicted range decline: –83.6%) and in the less severe scenario (B1, average change: –73.6%). A large proportion (over two thirds) of the species considered here is thus susceptible to major range contractions in this geographical region. These climate change-induced threats are of importance because the Arctic Ocean represents a natural barrier for northward movement of species. To reduce the negative effects of climate change on the northern species, relatively large areas of continuous habitats in a connected reserve network should be preserved.
ISSN:0006-3207
1873-2917
DOI:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.03.007