Evolution of flowering decisions in a stochastic, density-dependent environment

Demography is central to both ecology and evolution, and characterizing the feedback between ecology and evolution is critical for understanding organisms' life histories and how these might evolve through time. Here, we show how, by combining a range of theoretical approaches with the statisti...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2008-07, Vol.105 (30), p.10466-10470
Main Authors: Metcalf, C.J.E, Rose, K.E, Childs, D.Z, Sheppard, A.W, Grubb, P.J, Rees, M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological Evolution
Biological Sciences
Carduus - genetics
Carduus nutans
Carlina
Carlina vulgaris
Convergence
Demographics
Demography
Ecological competition
Ecological genetics
Ecological modeling
Ecology
Ecosystem
Environment
environmental factors
Evolution
Flowering
Flowers & plants
Flowers - genetics
Flowers - physiology
life history
mathematical models
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Phenotypic traits
Physiological Phenomena
plant density
Plants
Plants - genetics
Polymorphism
Population Density
Population Dynamics
Seed banks
Seedlings
Selection, Genetic
simulation models
Stochastic Processes
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Summary:Demography is central to both ecology and evolution, and characterizing the feedback between ecology and evolution is critical for understanding organisms' life histories and how these might evolve through time. Here, we show how, by combining a range of theoretical approaches with the statistical analysis of individually structured databases, accurate prediction of life history decisions is possible in natural density-regulated populations undergoing large fluctuations in demographic rates from year to year. Our predictions are remarkably accurate and statistically well defined. In addition, we show that the predicted trait values are evolutionarily and convergence stable and that protected polymorphisms are possible.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0800777105