How Often Will It Rain?

How Often Will It Rain?

Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2007-10, Vol.20 (19), p.4801-4818
Main Authors: Sun, Ying, Solomon, Susan, Dai, Aiguo, Portmann, Robert W.
Format: Article
Language:eng
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Atmospherics
Climate change
Climate models
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Data analysis
Earth, ocean, space
Emissions
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
General circulation models
Global climate models
Meteorology
Modeling
Moisture content
Precipitation
Simulations
Thermodynamics
Tropical regions
Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation)
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Summary:Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first century, all the models consistently show a shift toward more intense and extreme precipitation for the globe as a whole and over various regions. For both SRES B1 and A2, most models show decreased daily precipitation frequency and all the models show increased daily precipitation intensity. The multimodel averaged percentage increase in the precipitation intensity (2.0% K−1) is larger than the magnitude of the precipitation frequency decrease (−0.7% K−1). However, the shift in precipitation frequency distribution toward extremes results in large increases in very heavy precipitation events (>50 mm day−1), so that for very heavy precipitation, the percentage increase in frequency is much larger than the increase in intensity (31.2% versus 2.4%). The climate model projected increases in daily precipitation intensity are, however, smaller than that based on simple thermodynamics (~7% K−1). Multimodel ensemble means show that precipitation amount increases during the twenty-first century over high latitudes, as well as over currently wet regions in low- and midlatitudes more than other regions. This increase mostly results from a combination of increased frequency and intensity. Over the dry regions in the subtropics, the precipitation amount generally declines because of decreases in both frequency and intensity. This indicates that wet regions may get wetter and dry regions may become drier mostly because of a simultaneous increase (decrease) of precipitation frequency and intensity.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442