Microbiological and Modeling Approach to Derive Performance Objectives for Bacillus cereus Group in Ready‐to‐Eat Salads

In this article, the performance objectives (POs) for Bacillus cereus group (BC) in celery, cheese, and spelt added as ingredients in a ready‐to‐eat mixed spelt salad, packaged under modified atmosphere, were calculated using a Bayesian approach. In order to derive the POs, BC detection and enumerat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Risk analysis 2017-03, Vol.37 (3), p.408-420
Main Authors: Cesare, Alessandra, Vitali, Silvia, Trevisani, Marcello, Bovo, Federica, Manfreda, Gerardo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bacillus cereus
Bacteriology
Celery
censored data
Cheese
Computer simulation
Confidence intervals
Convenience foods
Food contamination & poisoning
Group dynamics
Ingredients
Mathematical models
Monte Carlo methods
Monte Carlo simulation
performance objective
Risk assessment
Salads
sampling plan
spelt salad
Studies
two‐dimensional Monte Carlo simulation
Wheat
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Summary:In this article, the performance objectives (POs) for Bacillus cereus group (BC) in celery, cheese, and spelt added as ingredients in a ready‐to‐eat mixed spelt salad, packaged under modified atmosphere, were calculated using a Bayesian approach. In order to derive the POs, BC detection and enumeration were performed in nine lots of naturally contaminated ingredients and final product. Moreover, the impact of specific production steps on the BC contamination was quantified. Finally, a sampling plan to verify the ingredient lots' compliance with each PO value at a 95% confidence level (CL) was defined. To calculate the POs, detection results as well as results above the limit of detection but below the limit of quantification (i.e., censored data) were analyzed. The most probable distribution of the censored data was determined and two‐dimensional (2D) Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The PO values were calculated to meet a food safety objective of 4 log10 cfu of BC for g of spelt salad at the time of consumption. When BC grows during storage between 0.90 and 1.90 log10 cfu/g, the POs for BC in celery, cheese, and spelt ranged between 1.21 log10 cfu/g for celery and 2.45 log10 cfu/g for spelt. This article represents the first attempt to manage the concept of PO and 2D Monte Carlo simulation in the flow chart of a complex food matrix, including raw and cooked ingredients.
ISSN:0272-4332
1539-6924
DOI:10.1111/risa.12617