Diagnostic sea ice predictability in the pan‐Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional seas

This study assesses sea ice predictability in the pan‐Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort) seas with a purpose of understanding regional differences from the pan‐Arctic perspective and how predictability might change under changing climate. Lagged correlation is derived us...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2016-11, Vol.43 (22), p.11,688-11,696
Main Authors: Cheng, Wei, Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Edward, Bitz, Cecilia M., Ladd, Carol, Stabeno, Phyllis J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arctic ice
Area
Climate
Climate change
Communities
Correlation
Data
Data assimilation
Data collection
Diagnostic systems
Earth
Economic forecasting
Global warming
Ice
Marine
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Modelling
NOAA
Ocean models
Polar environments
predictability
regional
Regional analysis
Sea ice
Seasons
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Summary:This study assesses sea ice predictability in the pan‐Arctic and U.S. Arctic regional (Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort) seas with a purpose of understanding regional differences from the pan‐Arctic perspective and how predictability might change under changing climate. Lagged correlation is derived using existing output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM‐LE), Pan‐Arctic Ice‐Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System, and NOAA Coupled Forecast System Reanalysis models. While qualitatively similar, quantitative differences exist in Arctic ice area lagged correlation in models with or without data assimilation. On regional scales, modeled ice area lagged correlations are strongly location and season dependent. A robust feature in the CESM‐LE is that the pan‐Arctic melt‐to‐freeze season ice area memory intensifies, whereas the freeze‐to‐melt season memory weakens as climate warms, but there are across‐region variations in the sea ice predictability changes with changing climate. Key Points While qualitatively similar, quantitative differences exist in ice area lagged correlation in models with or without data assimilation Regional predictability is strongly dependent upon location and season Pan‐Arctic ice area summer (winter) limb memory intensifies (weakens) as the climate warms, but there are across‐region variations
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2016GL070735