Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010–2018

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of inpu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Tropical animal health and production 2016-12, Vol.48 (8), p.1667-1671
Main Authors: Posadas-Domínguez, R. R., Callejas-Juárez, N., Arriaga-Jordán, C. M., Martínez-Castañeda, F. E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animals
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Cattle
Commerce
Dairying - economics
Female
Life Sciences
Mexico
Models, Economic
Monte Carlo Method
Regular Articles
Veterinary Medicine/Veterinary Science
Zoology
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Summary:A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.
ISSN:0049-4747
1573-7438
DOI:10.1007/s11250-016-1141-3